John McGuire and the 2026 blue wave

A rare step into election analysis, plus niggling details on redistricting and a gratuitous Muppets reference.

Don’t look too closely at the maps. They’re… approximate.

Could Democrats’ success in Virginia this year mean John McGuire might lose in 2026?

It’s a natural question, and I haven’t seen anyone else try to answer it, so I looked at some voting data. But buyer beware: I’m not an election expert and I don’t have access to polling data. This is a rudimentary analysis at best.

To get a sense of how much things have changed since McGuire’s election in 2024—how much VA-05 may be shifting toward the left, at least temporarily—I compared Abigail Spanberger’s performance in the district with how Gloria Witt’s in her congressional race against McGuire last year.

Witt lost the 5th district to McGuire by 15 points. Spanberger lost it to Winsome Earle-Sears by 8 points.

It looks to me like Spanberger narrowed the gap by making big gains in a few areas, fighting to a virtual tie in Lynchburg (where McGuire beat Witt by 9 points), Nelson County (ditto), Fluvanna County (ditto), and Prince Edward County (where McGuire won by five).

But those gains weren’t enough to offset VA-05’s diehard red counties, where Spanberger didn’t make a dent. She lost Campbell, Halifax, and Pittsylvania counties, for example, by essentially the same 30- and 40-point margins that Witt lost them by last year.

Even if a Democratic challenger in VA-05 starts off with the same support that Spanberger got here, 8 points still seems like a tough hill to climb. But there’s a lot I don’t know. Does Spanberger’s relative success in the district suggest there’s momentum that could close the gap even more in 2026? Where could a challenger to McGuire—who won by 66,000 votes—pick up enough ballots to make it a close race? Is McGuire more popular among VA-05’s Republicans than Earle-Sears? Does a gubernatorial election even tell you much about a congressional one that won’t be held for another year?

If you have thoughts or expertise on any of this, please post a comment or drop me an email.

What about redistricting?

A reader recently asked how plans to redraw Virginia’s congressional districts might affect McGuire. Unfortunately, I can’t answer the question because Democrats haven’t said what their new map might look like. The Daily Signal’s Joe Thomas claims to have it, but he got it from the GOP, so I wouldn’t put too much stock in it. Even if it’s genuine, it may not be the only map under consideration.

Although I don’t know what the map might look like, I’ve read up on what it takes to put it into effect. Here’s what I’ve found—some of it has been well covered, other parts not so much.

1. The 2026 Assembly approves a constitutional amendment and moves the candidate filing deadline.

It takes a constitutional amendment to give the General Assembly the power to draw new congressional map. The 2025 Assembly proposed one last month, and now the new Asssembly that convenes in January has to approve it.

I think they’ll also need to move the candidate filing deadline, for reasons I’ll get to in a moment.

2. Voters approve the amendment in a statewide referendum no earlier than April 15.

The Virginia constitution says that once the Assembly approves a proposed amendment, they have to wait at least 90 days before having a statewide referendum on it. That would put the earliest possible referendum on April 15, and that’s only possible if the Assembly approves the measure on the first day of its session.

There’s the rub. Right now, state law says the deadline to file for the primary is April 2—well before April 15. If the Assembly doesn’t push that deadline back so it comes after the referendum, we’ll be in for weeks of electoral chaos. Imagine:

1. Congressional candidates declare in existing districts, meeting the April 2 deadline for filing paperwork and petitions signed by thousands of voters in their district.

2. Then voters approve the amendment to allow redistricting, two weeks or more after the candidates have filed.

3. The Assembly draws a new map, reshaping the districts that candidates have just filed for.

Now, let’s assume the Democrats have a map drawn up and ready to go as soon as the referendum passes. (Insert Will Rogers joke here.) Republicans will surely try to at least tie things up in the courts long enough to keep the status quo through next November. Even setting aside the question of how small-d democratic it is to rush something like this through with little time for public comment on the map itself, a lot still has to happen. Election officials have to certify candidates’ paperwork. Candidates have to reach their new voters. Voters—including members of the military and other people living overseas—have to learn about the candidates and their new district.

How would all that work? If the map changes after you declare, do you have to gather all new signatures and petitions? What if you don’t live in that district anymore? (Virginia doesn’t require members of Congress to live in their districts, but it’s a reasonable expectation that they do.) Could the state update the voter rolls in time to reflect the new map? Could ballots be sent to overseas voters and returned in time?

Maybe these are all solvable problems, but I suspect they’re why I wasn’t able to find a precedent for redrawing maps after the filing deadline and why the Assembly will probably have to revise the calendar. And, again, this is assuming that a court doesn’t put a hold on the map for, say, disenfranchising Republican voters.

3. Nominees for the new districts are selected in the June 16 primary.

Then it’s on to runoffs and the general election in November.

This is nuts!

Yes it is. But red states are already trying to do it. It’s easier in Texas, for instance, because the state Legislature already has the right to redraw the congressional map. And it all goes back to Donald Trump, the world’s most deranged Chaos Muppet, who kicked off the whole redistricting gambit.

(From Dahlia Lithwick at Slate.com :

Chaos Muppets are out-of-control, emotional, volatile. They tend toward the blue and fuzzy. They make their way through life in a swirling maelstrom of food crumbs, small flaming objects, and the letter C. Cookie Monster, Ernie, Grover, Gonzo, Dr. Bunsen Honeydew and—paradigmatically—Animal, are all Chaos Muppets.)

At least the Virginia version isn’t a permanent power grab. It’s only effective through 2030, and it has a trigger clause so it only kicks in if another state goes first.

—Boot